Is failure the most likely outcome of COP26?

Is failure the most likely outcome of COP26?

Ahead of the conference in Glasgow, Dr Peter McManners shares his views on the way forward when it comes to solving the climate crisis.

As the opening of COP26 in Glasgow draws near, failure seems to be the most likely outcome. Reports that some countries, including Saudi Arabia and Australia, have been lobbying to dilute the findings of key reports does not bode well. It would seem that there remain world political leaders who are not yet ready to regard the climate crisis as an emergency. This is a shame because there is a window of opportunity for COP26 to succeed, but not perhaps as most people expect.

We should start by noting that there is a huge gulf between the aspiration agreed at COP in Paris 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5°, and the reality of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) being tabled in Glasgow. These were only ever going to be a weak approach with plenty of wriggle room and no enforcement mechanism. Still, leaders accepted the fig leaf of NDCs to give the impression that something was being done. This has allowed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to continue and COP26 to be convened, despite the impossibility that the current process can solve the climate crisis.

Peter McManners is the author of Face up to Climate Change: Demand Change Now and is a Visiting Fellow of Henley Business School.