REP Roundup: March 2024
News from the Department of Real Estate & Planning
School News
On March 7th, a group of the Reading Real Estate students in undergraduate programme, years 1 & 2 and MSc Real Estate participated in the LandAid sleepout to raise money and awareness of youth homelessness. A total of £4,000 was raised.
Research Bids
Joe Doak: Workshop coordinator at the Berkshire Heritage Fair, 24th February 2024 providing expert advice on researching local industrial and property histories.
Carlo Corradini - Innovation Reserach Caucus (Oxford Brookes University)
- Title: Exploring the geography of hidden innovaiton through big data in social media
- Total bid: £39,991
Publications
Selvavinayagam, T. S. , Somasundaram, A. , Selvam, J. M. , Sampath, P. , Vijayalakshmi, V. , Kumar, C. A. B. , Subramaniam, S. , Kumarasamy, P. , Raju, S. , Avudaiselvi, R. , Prakash, V. , Yogananth, N. , Subramanian, G. , Roshini, A. , Dhiliban, D. N. , Imad, S. , Tandel, V. , Parasa, R. , Sachdeva, S. , Ramachandran, S. and Malani, A. (2024) Contribution of infection and vaccination to population-level seroprevalence through two COVID waves in Tamil Nadu, India. Scientific Reports, 14. 2091. ISSN 2045-2322 DOI link
Abstract
This study employs repeated, large panels of serological surveys to document rapid and substantial waning of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the population level and to calculate the extent to which infection and vaccination separately contribute to seroprevalence estimates. Four rounds of serological surveys were conducted, spanning two COVID waves (October 2020 and April–May 2021), in Tamil Nadu (population 72 million) state in India. Each round included representative populations in each district of the state, totaling ≥ 20,000 persons per round. State-level seroprevalence was 31.5% in round 1 (October–November 2020), after India’s first COVID wave. Seroprevalence fell to 22.9% in round 2 (April 2021), a roughly one-third decline in 6 months, consistent with dramatic waning of SARS-Cov-2 antibodies from natural infection. Seroprevalence rose to 67.1% by round 3 (June–July 2021), with infections from the Delta-variant induced second COVID wave accounting for 74% of the increase. Seroprevalence rose to 93.1% by round 4 (December 2021–January 2022), with vaccinations accounting for 63% of the increase. Antibodies also appear to wane after vaccination. Seroprevalence in urban areas was higher than in rural areas, but the gap shrunk over time (35.7 v. 25.7% in round 1, 89.8% v. 91.4% in round 4) as the epidemic spread even in low-density rural areas.
Ilbasmıs, M. , Gronwald, M. and Zhao, Y. ORCID (2024) The impact of dividend payout policies on real estate market diversification. International Journal of Finance & Economics. ISSN 1099-1158 DOI link
Abstract
An asymmetric DCC – GJR – GARCH model is applied to the Turkish and US REIT markets in order to estimate the time-varying correlations between the REIT and stock markets. Using these estimated correlations, we investigate the impact of dividend payouts on the diversification potential of REITs for stock market investors. Our choice of the Turkish REIT market is based on its unique REIT dividend policy, while US data provide a benchmark for comparison. This study has a number of motivations and contributions that make it a worthwhile undertaking. First, we document that REIT dividend policy is related to the correlation between REIT and stock markets. Dividend paying REITs have lower correlations with stock markets, which makes the REIT market a viable portfolio diversifier. Second, we confirm that REITs and stock prices cointegrated more closely due to the 2008 global financial crisis. We additionally document that a similar effect was also present in the correlation during the global Covid-19 pandemic crisis. It appears that REIT and stock markets become more correlated during times of financial turmoil and diversification opportunities are diminished. Finally, we document that there is a long-term trend in the time-varying correlations between REIT and stock markets. Türkiye has been experiencing a negative trend in this regard, while the US has been experiencing a positive trend.
Yu, X. (2024) Low-rise buildings in big cities: theory and evidence from China. Real Estate Economics, 52 (2). pp. 366-400. ISSN 1540-6229 DOI link
Abstract
This article explores the determinants of floor area ratio (FAR) limit, a major form of construction density regulation, in China. I develop a spatial equilibrium framework to study local governments’ optimal FAR design and investigate over 400,000 residential land transactions between 2007 and 2019 to perform the empirical analysis. Exploiting the exogenous variations generated by administrative adjustments and applying a propensity score matching approach, I find that a one standard deviation increase in local budgetary revenue decreases FAR limits by 0.29. Further counterfactual analysis suggests that the land finance model contributes to housing affordability issues and spatial inequality in China.
PhD News
PhD Vivas
Thesis examined: Fenting Zhang - "Information Biases and Behaviour in Asset Markets"
Supervisor: Prof. Gianluca Marcato