Leadership and broken promises: Reeves’ Autumn Budget dilemma

As the Autumn Budget looms, Dr Filipe Morais considers whether breaking a manifesto pledge can ever be the right choice.

As Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver the Autumn Budget on 26 November, Westminster is braced for a political storm. The Chancellor has dithered and dallied on whether she will break its manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, a promise that helped secure its landslide victory just over a year ago.

Some reports have suggested that Reeves is considering a 2p rise in income tax, offset by a cut in National Insurance for lower earners, to plug a fiscal gap that could reach £30 billion. This would be a bold and controversial move as Labour campaigned on protecting 'working people' from tax hikes. Then again, reports have also said she won’t touch income tax. Whether the pledge is broken or not, is it ever okay for leaders to break their promises?

For ordinary citizens, a broken promise feels personal. However, if people believe a U-turn is necessary and fair, they often forgive. But that forgiveness isn’t automatic, it must be earned. Reeves faces sluggish growth, rising borrowing costs, and global uncertainty. She’s in a difficult position: sticking rigidly to the manifesto could mean slashing investment in infrastructure and skills, undermining Britain’s future. In that light, breaking a promise wouldn’t be a failure of leadership; it would be an act of responsibility, if done openly and fairly.

Reeves herself framed the dilemma starkly: “If you’re asking what comes first, the national interest or political expediency, it’s the national interest every single time for me – and it’s the same for Keir Starmer too." She knew the optics were bad, but she was betting that voters would respect honesty and realism over rigid adherence to a pledge that no longer fits the economic reality. It seems now she may have misjudged the capacity for forgiveness amongst the public (and her own back benchers).

At the same time, Reeves argues that without extra revenue, Britain faces “deep cuts” to investment which could choke productivity and growth for years to come. “It would, of course, be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending”, she told BBC Radio 5 Live. “And the reason why our productivity and our growth has been so poor these last few years is because governments have always taken the easy option to cut investment."

The choice isn’t between good and bad, it’s between two difficult paths.

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